The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons on “Monday Night Football” to close out Week 15 in the NFL. The Falcons are six-point favorites, up two from the opener.

The over-under, or total number of points oddsmakers think will be scored, is 47.5, the same as where it opened.

Before you make any bets on Falcons-Bucs, you’ll want to hear what SportsLine Senior Analyst Larry Hartstein has to say.

In Week 14, Hartstein backed the Falcons as home dogs to New Orleans. Atlanta’s pulsating 20-17 victory kept Hartstein’s streak rolling.

It improved him to 11-2 on picks for or against the Dirty Birds since the start of last season. Anyone who has followed his advice is way, way up.

Part of his success: Hartstein was a sportswriter based in Atlanta for 15 years. He has his finger on the pulse of Dan Quinn’s team.

Now he’s gunning for 12-2 and just locked in a strong play for “Monday Night Football.” You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Hartstein knows the past two times these teams met, the Falcons won by 14 and 15 points. In the most recent meeting four weeks ago, the Falcons won 34-20 with wide receiver Julio Jones busting loose for 253 yards and two touchdowns.

And in his past four full games, Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston has committed nine turnovers. He has struggled with injuries this season and has just 14 touchdowns with eight interceptions.

But just because the Falcons have been hotter doesn’t mean they cover a six-point spread on the road on “Monday Night Football.”

In games Winston has played, the Bucs have lost eight times. However, they’ve fallen by one score five times. They were within striking distance of the Lions (3), Packers (6), Bills (3), Cardinals (5) and Patriots (5).

And the Falcons haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard. They scored just nine points at home against the Vikings two weeks ago, then put up 20 against the Saints.

Atlanta has hit 30 points just twice in the past 10 games. Jones has only three 100-yard games and three touchdowns this season. The Falcons largely have sputtered under first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian.

Hartstein is leaning over for Monday night, but what about the spread, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there’s a huge x-factor that ultimately determines the point-spread winner for Falcons-Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football.” And he’s sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in Falcons-Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football?” Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor determines which side of Falcons-Buccaneers you need to be all over, all from the expert who has nailed 11 of his past 13 Falcons picks, and find out.